The Strange Success of North Korea (December 18, 2024, Foreign Affairs)
In response to North Korea’s successful test of its first intercontinental ballistic missile and thermonuclear device, the usually gridlocked UN Security Council had unanimously enacted a series of tough sanctions. Initiated by Washington and supported by both Beijing and Moscow, these punitive measures had the potential to devastate the North Korean economy.
Sino-Mongolian relations shrouded in resentment (November 13, 2024, GIS Reports Online)
Mongolia’s “third neighbor” policy balances relations with superpowers. The two countries are mired in historical grievances over land, culture and language, complicating diplomacy on modern geopolitical issues including energy. Cultural preservation efforts are pitted against China’s Sinicization policies. The Power of Siberia II project highlights tensions over energy negotiations.
Bangladesh named country of the year, Syria runner-up (December 20, 2024, First Post)
The Economist has named Bangladesh as ‘Country of the Year’ for 2024, but also said that Muhammad Yunus-led interim government will have to ’need to repair ties with India’. Read more to find why it has picked Bangladesh.
Will European Troops Enforce a Cease-Fire in Ukraine? (December 20, 2024, Foreign Policy) (Subscription required)
War is always about choosing one risk over another. For almost three years, Europe has largely behaved as if it did not have to make that choice: It could support Ukraine’s fight against Russia and keep the European security order intact—and at the same time avoid placing its own population and military forces at risk. Considering the deteriorating military situation in Ukraine, the prospect of less military aid from Washington, and the growing likelihood of a forced cease-fire favoring Russia, however, Europe’s avoidance of painful decisions may no longer be sustainable.
Who’s Afraid of a ‘Cambodia Spring’? (December 20, 2024, The Diplomat)
Despite the unexpected collapse of authoritarian edifices in Syria and Bangladesh, there is no guarantee of Cambodia following suit. No event is unforeseeable, but who last month was predicting the immediate collapse of Al-Assad’s dictatorship or in June of Sheikh Hasina’s regime? Then again, most dictatorships are still around.
Jordan on the Edge: Pressures from the War in Gaza and the Incoming Trump Administration (December 16, 2024, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft)
This brief examines the implications of the ongoing Israeli–Palestinian and Israeli–Lebanese conflicts for the Kingdom of Jordan. While once seen as a central actor in the Israel–Palestine conflict, Jordan has not received significant consideration by the U.S. foreign policy establishment since the Hamas attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. This oversight could prove perilous, as a destabilized Jordan would have broad effects across the region.
United Front: China's 'magic weapon' caught in a spy controversy (December 19, 2024, BBC)
The People's Republic of China has a "magic weapon", according to its founding leader Mao Zedong and its current president Xi Jinping. It is called the United Front Work Department - and it is raising as much alarm in the West as Beijing's growing military arsenal.
Why China Isn’t Scared of Trump (December 20, 2024, Foreign Affairs)
China’s leaders do not look at Trump with fear. They learned a great deal from his first term. His propensity for economic protectionism will lead to further disputes and rising tensions, but Beijing believes that it can navigate such confrontations.
China preparing for invasion: report (December 20, 2024, Taipei Times)
An invasion would be difficult and would strain China’s forces, but it has conducted large-scale training supporting an invasion scenario. “Throughout 2023, Beijing continued to erode longstanding norms in and around Taiwan by employing a range of pressure tactics against Taiwan…”
INTERVIEW: Umbrella Movement changed the face of Hong Kong politics (September 25, 2024, Radio Free Asia)
The public backlash amid growing calls for genuine democratic reform took the form of a student strike, camps on major roads, sit-ins, mass rallies of hundreds of thousands of people and an unofficial referendum that came out overwhelmingly in favor of open nominations for electoral candidates. While the authorities refused to back down, saying there was ' no room' for discussion on the electoral rules, police fired tear gas and beat protesters in clashes that began 10 years ago.