• Mon-12-2024
South Korea’s impeachment fails—what’s next? (December 8, 2024, Peoples Dispatch)

Yoon Seok Yeol’s failed attempt to impose martial law and the subsequent impeachment vote have blown the lid off of a much deeper political crisis in the country. As lawmakers contend for power and the situation on the street remains fluid, a more protracted struggle for South Korea’s future appears to be settling in.

  • Mon-12-2024
Will Iran Become More Dangerous After Assad’s Ouster in Syria? (December 8, 2024, Council on Foreign Relations)

The Bashar al-Assad regime’s rapid collapse deals a heavy blow to Iran’s “axis of resistance” and its ability to project power in the region, and it raises fears Iran will focus more on developing its nuclear program.

  • Mon-12-2024
Why should Azerbaijan serve as barrier to migrants? (December 5, 2024, Aze.media)

The fight against terrorism is undoubtedly crucial and necessary. As a country that has been a repeated victim of terrorist acts, Azerbaijan does not accept any compromises in this regard, especially considering that during an attack on the embassy of any nation—regardless of how friendly or unfriendly it may be—Azerbaijani citizens could be harmed, which is absolutely unacceptable. However, there is one particular detail that led the State Security Service (SSS) to initiate a separate criminal case.

  • Mon-12-2024
Is Russia the loser in the fall of Syria’s Aleppo? (December 3, 2024, Lowy Institute: The Interpreter)

While Russia struggles to capture strategically insignificant villages in eastern Ukraine, its client in Syria, President Bashar-al Assad, has lost control over Aleppo – the war-torn nation’s second largest city. Türkiye-backed rebels, in a surprise offensive, have seriously undermined not only Assad’s reign, but also Russia’s position in the Middle East.

  • Sat-11-2024
South Sudan’s ‘game of thrones’ continues (November 29, 2024, Institute for Security Studies)

After the fourth extension of South Sudan’s first post-independence elections, it is becoming increasingly difficult to imagine how Africa’s youngest state will ever become a democracy. The polls were scheduled for December, with the transition ending in February 2025. But on 18 September, signatories to the 2018 peace agreement postponed elections until December 2026 because almost no progress had been made in undertaking the necessary preparations since the last extension.

  • Sat-11-2024
Is Indonesia experiencing election fatigue? (November 27, 2024, Deutsche Welle)

As Indonesia carries out its first-ever simultaneous regional elections, important local issues hang in the balance. However, after a mammoth presidential election, officials worry voters are becoming ambivalent.

  • Mon-12-2024
What Do the Latest Purges Mean for China’s Military? (December 7, 2024, The Diplomat) (Subscription required)

In what appears to be a deliberate echo of Mao, Xi told senior ranking officers of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army in June 2024: “We must make it clear that the barrels of guns must always be in the hands of those who are loyal and dependable to the [Chinese Communist] Party … And we must make it clear that there is no place for any corrupt elements in the military.” Since then, a strident campaign to eradicate corruption has continued, leading to the removal of senior officers and political commissars.

  • Mon-12-2024
China-Pakistan’s ‘All Weather Friendship’ Gets Rebuff From Taliban (December 5, 2024, The Diplomat) (Subscription required)

Beijing has sought to press the Taliban, on behalf of Pakistan, to deal with the TTP. The Taliban remain unmoved. The Chinese have been left to introspect about the gap between the leverage they think they have over the Taliban and the leverage they actually have.

  • Mon-12-2024
Russia and China in Central Asia (November 12, 2024, Center for New American Security)

Despite the many proclamations that Russian and Chinese interests would collide in Central Asia, Moscow and Beijing continue to work together in service of their shared objectives. These include, most importantly, keeping the United States and the West—and democracy—out of the region, maintaining stability, and pursuing economic benefits.

  • Sat-11-2024
Vietnam will likely still be caught in the Trump administration’s sights. (November 26, 2024, Fulcrum)

Vietnam’s growing trade surplus with the US strongly suggests that China uses Vietnam as a backdoor to dodge US tariffs. Such rerouting is actually lower than is imagined. Given that perceptions drive politics, Vietnam will likely still be caught in the Trump administration’s sights.